Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 0.279772 0.322612 0.369249 0.423715 0.485500 0.553331 0.633362
2025-07-13 0.223471 0.280644 0.347783 0.432157 0.535047 0.656111 0.809006
2025-07-20 0.176268 0.239937 0.320207 0.428174 0.568845 0.745071 0.981609
2025-07-27 0.144170 0.212000 0.303495 0.434689 0.616484 0.857764 1.200125
2025-08-03 0.119657 0.189591 0.290245 0.443613 0.668808 0.984181 1.455214
2025-08-10 0.093353 0.159468 0.261007 0.425321 0.680687 1.057466 1.648698
2025-08-17 0.071781 0.132139 0.230967 0.400587 0.679090 1.111079 1.821546
2025-08-24 0.057946 0.114568 0.213086 0.391779 0.700571 1.202155 2.063327
2025-08-31 0.046979 0.099619 0.196783 0.382668 0.719970 1.292349 2.315664
2025-09-07 0.040331 0.091296 0.190667 0.390321 0.769109 1.437825 2.677683
2025-09-14 0.032310 0.078326 0.173314 0.374065 0.772709 1.505357 2.914635
2025-09-21 0.026659 0.069017 0.161336 0.366000 0.790167 1.599454 3.210031
2025-09-28 0.021577 0.059901 0.148364 0.354547 0.801268 1.687142 3.512760
2025-10-05 0.018868 0.055807 0.145588 0.364408 0.857538 1.869245 4.018868
2025-10-12 0.015921 0.050286 0.138371 0.363088 0.890135 2.009110 4.460638
2025-10-19 0.013889 0.046684 0.135056 0.370329 0.942945 2.197674 5.024991
2025-10-26 0.012230 0.043678 0.132623 0.379332 1.001386 2.405930 5.656047
2025-11-02 0.009931 0.037962 0.121634 0.364474 1.001001 2.486032 6.023029
2025-11-09 0.007877 0.032310 0.109402 0.343741 0.982633 2.523150 6.300067
2025-11-16 0.006582 0.028816 0.102625 0.336636 0.997720 2.639679 6.770878
2025-11-23 0.005498 0.025688 0.096178 0.329126 1.010498 2.752343 7.246179
2025-11-30 0.004889 0.024196 0.094661 0.336112 1.064012 2.971735 8.000941
2025-12-07 0.003988 0.021118 0.086952 0.322194 1.056464 3.036565 8.386750